07.10.24 - 11.10.24
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +11.15% | PA +4.27% | NQ +2.21% |
VIX -13.85% | NG -5.34% | HG -2.28% |
US indices had their upward rally cut short. To rise further, they need additional catalysts that are currently missing. Overall, macroeconomic reports from the United States are fairly positive and won't likely force the US Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. The US regulator is unlikely to lower its key interest rate at its November meeting., which is restraining growth for indices.
Despite some aggressive comments from US Federal Reserve officials regarding their future monetary policy actions, namely their unwillingness to continue rapid rate cuts, the dollar strengthened against most major currencies. Gold also lost ground against the dollar.
Brent crude oil price movements are mixed. At the start of the week, they reached $81.15 before later bouncing off this local high. Oil prices are receiving support from an escalation in the Middle East. However, fears of the Strait of Hormuz being closed have subsided slightly, which has caused a downward correction.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Unemployment rate | DATE 15.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's unemployment rate has been falling for the past several months. However, it's expected to rise during the reporting period, according to global analysts' projections. Higher unemployment figures are one of the factors signalling an economic cooldown. This is bad news for the British pound since it increases the likelihood that the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate at its next meeting. Against this backdrop, the Cable could continue to drop to somewhere around 1.2970. | |||||
ECB interest rate decision | DATE 17.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The eurozone's economy is fairly weak. The economies of Germany and France, the currency bloc's economic engines, are showing signs of a cooldown. In Germany, for example, the manufacturing PMI is in a downturn and continues to drop. Inflation in the eurozone continues to fall. Together, these factors allow the ECB to continue easing its monetary policy. Global analysts expect the regulator to reduce its key interest rate to 3.4% at its current meeting, which is an unfavourable sign for the European currency. If the regulator makes this move, EUR/USD could drop to 1.0860. | |||||
The US. Retail sales | DATE 17.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales reflect the overall consumption of goods and services. They are one of the key indicators that reflect the state of the United States' service-oriented economy. Global analysts expect retail sales growth to slow. This indicates that Americans are less willing to spend. However, at this stage, this kind of movement for the indicator won't force the US Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy stance, which is good news for the US dollar. In such a scenario, USD/JPY could continue to rise to 150.60. | |||||
