17.03.25 - 21.03.25
Results of the previous week
| HG +4.06% | HO +2.55% | NQ +1.94% |
VIX -5.97% | PL -4.55% | NZDUSD -1.44% |
US indices showed mixed dynamics last week. Concerns remain over the effects of Trumponomics. However, the degree of tension was reduced by the US Federal Reserve's key interest rate decision, which confirmed its commitment to maintaining the current monetary policy, namely the possibility of two rate cuts in 2025.
The dollar managed to form a correction at the end of the week because the Federal Reserve doesn't see the need to cut rates right now. The dollar was also supported by data on industrial production and existing home sales, which exceeded forecasts. That said, the positive data weren't able to completely calm concerns over the geopolitical risks that helped gold reach a new all-time high.
Brent crude oil prices rose slightly toward the end of the week. The energy resource is receiving moderate support amid reports from OPEC that all countries with voluntary oil production cuts, except Algeria, have submitted plans to the OPEC Secretariat to compensate for overproduction within the OPEC+ agreement by a total of 4.2 million barrels per day until June 2026.
Key events of the current week
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 26.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at its last meeting. This decision was largely due to the UK's current inflation rate, which has begun to rise in recent months. This is preventing the regulator from shifting back to quantitative easing. Global analysts expect the country's inflation rate to remain steady during the reporting period. This will further increase confidence that the Bank of England will not cut rates at its next meeting. This is good news for the British pound. In this context, GBP/USD could resume upward movement to 1.3100. | |||||
| The US. Durable goods orders EUR/USD | DATE 26.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
This important indicator makes it possible to assess future manufacturing PMI and the situation in the industrial sector. Overall, the US economy is looking pretty confident, which allowed the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The fact that key macroeconomic indicators are remaining positive is favourable for expectations about the regulator's monetary policy. This, in turn, is favourable for the US dollar but bad for competitors like the euro. Against this background, EUR/USD could form a correction toward 1,0780. | |||||
| The US. Personal expenditures USD/JPY | DATE 28.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Personal consumption expenditures are a key measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the US economy. It accounts for two-thirds of domestic final spending, which is why it affects how future economic growth moves. Global analysts expect the indicator to rise in the reporting period. This would confirm the US economy's stability. As a result, the Fed wouldn't need to accelerate its rate-cutting process. That's good news for the US dollar. In such a scenario, USD/JPY could continue to rise to 150.60. | |||||
