15.09.25 - 19.09.25
Results of the previous week
| CERS +21.49% | XAGUSD +2.06% | NQ +2.06% |
COFFEE -12.17% | NG -4.07% | NZDUSD -2.14% |
Last week, US indices saw moderate growth and set new highs. The US Federal Reserve's decision to cut its key interest rate supported the positive movement. The Fed's interest rate projections through the end of the year were also welcome news for investors. The rate is expected to drop to between 3.5% and 3.75%. Corporate news was yet another factor that buoyed indices.
In the forex market, the dollar saw mixed movement. At the start of the week, it lost ground against most of its opponents, but after the Fed announced its decision, it reversed course. Trust in the US dollar rose amidst confidence that the Fed's decision-making will remain independent despite pressure from Donald Trump.
Brent crude oil prices remain between $65.00 and $69.30. Concerns about the global economic outlook are one factor holding back growth. They intensified after the Federal Reserve's decision to cut its key rate because the regulator's actions acknowledged that the US economy, one of the largest energy consumers, is cooling.
Key events of the current week
| The UK. Services PMI GBP/USD | DATE 23.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The service sector accounts for a significant share of the UK's GDP, so the index's performance is key to assessing the state of the economy. Until recently, the indicator had consistently remained in the growth zone. However, global analysts expect it to decline in the reporting period, which reflects a cooldown in the services sector. These are worrying signs for the economy and the British pound. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD could continue to drop to 1.3370. | |||||
| Germany. IFO Business Climate Index EUR/USD | DATE 24.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy is under pressure from high energy prices and supply chain disruptions. A decline in growth rates, labour market issues, production cuts or the complete suspension of operations by large companies are worsening business sentiment. Global analysts expect the IFO Business Climate Index to continue to decline, reflecting growing pessimism in the business community. That's bad news for the euro. In that scenario, EUR/USD could continue to decline towards 1.1600. | |||||
| The US. Durable goods orders USD/JPY | DATE 25.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Global analysts expect a further decline in durable goods orders. This is a worrying signal because fewer orders mean a slowdown in manufacturing production and investment. Lower key macroeconomic indicators could push the US Federal Reserve to ease its monetary policy further by the end of the year, which would be unfavourable for the dollar. In these conditions, USD/JPY could decline to 146.30. | |||||
