05.12.22 - 09.12.22
Results of the previous week
| NG +13.3% | XAGUSD +5.56% | NZDUSD +1.34% |
BRN -7.96% | COFFEE -3.49% | NQ -1.96% |
US stocks traded mixed. Early in the week, they came under pressure but attempted to recover their losses closer to the weekend. Paradoxically, pressure on the indices came from positive macroeconomic statistics from the US, which provoked increased fears that the Fed won't slow down its rate hike. The shift was triggered by corporate earnings reports.
The dollar's position has been challenged. Unlike the US Fed, the Eurozone and UK central banks have no plans to slow down their rate hikes as inflation in their countries remain at all-time highs. This, in turn, helps the euro and the pound to show strength against the US currency.
Brent crude oil prices reached this year's low by dropping to $75.74. The energy resource came under pressure due to fears that the US Fed will continue to tighten the nation's monetary policy because it is convinced that the US economy is feeling reasonably confident despite a number of earlier rate hikes. This does not exclude a reduction in demand for oil. Markets are also assessing the decision to impose a price cap on oil from Russia.
Key events of the current week
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 13.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the US is significantly higher than the target level set by the Fed. Nevertheless, price pressures have been declining steadily over the last 4 months, signaling that the US regulator's actions still managed to have the desired effect. If the downward inflation trend continues, markets will be even more convinced that the Fed will somewhat reduce the speed of its rate hikes or, at the very least, narrow the increment at which it raises them. This will have a negative effect on the dollar, potentially putting pressure on it and allowing its opponents to strengthen against it. The EUR/USD pair could move toward 1.0640. | |||||
The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision | DATE 14.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
In its fight against inflation, the US regulator has already carried out six interest rate hikes. Its actions have yielded the desired result, with US price pressure continuing to decline. That's why markets expect the pace of monetary policy tightening to slow down. Federal Reserve officials have made it clear that they don't intend to stop completely at the moment, so special attention must be paid to their comments. But if the rate is raised by just 50 basis points and the US Federal Reserve's rhetoric doesn't become more aggressive, it'll give markets hope for a recovery. US indices could strengthen in this scenario, and the S&P 500 could aim to return to 4082.00. | |||||
Bank of England rates decision | DATE 15.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the UK is record-breaking, with the indicator exceeding 11% in annualised terms. The situation is unlikely to change for the better in the coming months, given the energy price situation and the midst of the heating season. The Bank of England is taking measures to curb rising price pressures. It has already raised its rate eight times and is expected to hike it by another 50 basis points at its upcoming meeting. This could work in the British pound's favour. In such a scenario, the GBP/USD pair could move to 1.2400. | |||||
