07.04.25 - 11.04.25
Results of the previous week
| XAUUSD +8.26% | YM +5.98% | PL +5.07% |
VIX -17.04% | NG -4.52% | USDCAD -2.88% |
Last week saw high volatility, primarily due to Trump's trade wars. The US president introduced unprecedented tariffs on goods from China, which responded in kind. This confrontation put significant pressure on stock indices. However, the tariffs for some countries were frozen for several months, which led to a sharp rebound from recent lows.
As a result of the trade wars, the dollar fell to multi-month lows against most of its rivals. For example, the EUR/USD pair rose to a three-year high. Gold has exceeded $3,200 per troy ounce for the first time ever.
At one point, Brent crude oil prices fell to $58.39, the lowest level since February 2021. Energy prices are falling due to concerns that demand could fall sharply amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China.
Key events of the current week
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 16.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Data released last week showed that the UK economy is showing signs of stabilisation. GDP grew by 0.5% against a forecast of 0.1%. Industrial manufacturing data also exceeded expectations. With the economy stabilising, the inflation report becomes particularly important when the Bank of England makes its interest rate decision. Global analysts expect inflation in the UK to increase. The combination of rising inflation and economic stabilisation will allow the British regulator to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4.5%. This is favourable for the pound. GBP/USD could continue to rise to 1.3260. | |||||
| The US. Retail sales USD/JPY | DATE 16.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales are one of the most important indicators when it comes to understanding the US economy's health. The indicator has fallen over the last two months. Global analysts expect the downward trend to continue in the reporting period, which would signal that the US economy is gradually cooling. This is unfavourable for the dollar since a deterioration in key macroeconomic indicators allows the US Federal Reserve not to rush to cut its key interest rate. In this environment, USD/JPY could continue to drop towards 140.50. | |||||
| The European Central Bank's interest rate decision EUR/USD | DATE 17.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The euro has strengthened against the dollar in recent weeks due to decreased interest in the US currency amid the trade wars Trump started. The eurozone economy remains fairly weak. For example, last week, Bosch announced the closure of two factories. The slowdown in the region's economy requires stimulus measures. The ECB has lowered its key interest rate several times, and global analysts expect that the regulator will continue to do so at its meeting in mid-April, which is bad news for the euro. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.1220. | |||||
