10.03.25 - 14.03.25
Results of the previous week
| TSLA +12.87% | XAGUSD +5.21% | BRN +2.57% |
VIX -15.38% | NG -6.1% | YM -1.65% |
Last week, US indices fell further as US President Donald Trump's tariff policy continues to hit the US stock market. The reversal of US Treasury yields is adding to the negative environment and once again raises the question of a possible recession in the US by the end of 2025.
The dollar has been trading mixed. On the one hand, it's managed to strengthen against commodity currencies affected by Trump's tariff decisions. On the other, it's fallen relative to the euro and pound sterling. Germany's proposal to increase defence and infrastructure spending has significantly strengthened the euro. Altogether, these factors (geopolitical risks and Trumponomics) have pushed demand for gold higher, helping the precious metal's price reach $3000 per ounce.
Brent crude oil prices have risen slightly. The energy source is receiving moderate support in the context of US tariffs on Canadian oil, disruptions in oil supplies from Iran and Venezuela and tightening sanctions on Russian oil. Concerns about a global economic slowdown caused more substantial price growth.
Key events of the current week
| Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment EUR/USD | DATE 18.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy's situation remains unstable. GDP is still falling, although individual macroeconomic reports are still showing positive shifts. The country's industrial production, in particular, rose higher than had been forecast (2% versus an expected 1.5%). In this context, business sentiment is expected to improve. Global analysts expect the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment to rise. Positive changes in key macroeconomic reports are favourable for the euro. Against this background, EUR/USD could continue to rise to 1.1000. | |||||
| US Fed interest rate decision XAU/USD | DATE 19.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy remains one of the strongest among G7 economies. The stable labour market, gradually decreasing inflation, and fairly high GDP growth rate allow the Federal Reserve to take its time with a new wave of interest rate cuts. Global analysts expect the regulator to keep the rate unchanged. Fed representatives have repeatedly signalled that they're putting the state of the country's economy at the forefront when making decisions on monetary policy. Keeping the interest rate where it is would be good news for the dollar but unfavourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could bounce back to 2975.00. | |||||
| Bank of England rates decision GBP/USD | DATE 20.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
According to the latest data, inflation in the United Kingdom has risen once again, with the indicator reaching 3.0%. This movement for inflation keeps the Bank of England from considering a rate cut, even though the economy needs stimulus (compared to the previous month, the rate of economic growth slowed by 0.1%). The regulator's decision to keep the country's key interest rate unchanged is good news for the pound. In this context, GBP/USD could continue to rise to 1.3030. | |||||
