24.03.25 - 28.03.25
Results of the previous week
| VIX +22.01% | NG +6.79% | XAGUSD +3.87% |
Bitcoin -6.87% | NQ -5.42% | COFFEE -3.67% |
Trump announced the introduction of 25% tariffs on automobiles assembled outside the United States, a move that has significantly alarmed markets as such decisions intensify the trade stand-off. As a result of the president's decisions, US indices came under pressure.
The forex market saw mixed dynamics. The dollar rose against the euro and yen while suffering moderate losses against the pound. It's worth noting that the British currency was buoyed by released data. Gold continued to rise, once again setting a new all-time high amid concerns stemming from Trump's trade wars.
Brent crude oil prices rose at the end of the week amid reports of a sharp decline in US reserves. Oil prices also responded positively to reports of a possible introduction of 25% tariffs on countries that buy oil from Venezuela, which could disrupt trade flows and limit supply.
Key events of the current week
| The eurozone. Inflation rate EUR/USD | DATE 01.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The eurozone economy remains weak, which has resulted in the European Central Bank repeatedly cutting its key interest rate to provide economic stimulus. The regulator makes its decision based on inflation data, among other things. Global analysts expect core inflation (i.e., excluding food and energy) to decrease. A drop in inflation would give the ECB grounds to continue its quantitative easing, which is bad news for the euro. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.0625. | |||||
| The US. Services PMI (ISM) USD/JPY | DATE 03.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The services sector makes up a large portion of US GDP, accounting for up to 75% of it. So far, this sector of the economy doesn't pose any cause for concern as PMI continues to rise. That said, global analysts expect that it will decrease slightly in the reporting period. This is an alarming signal because a US economic cooldown would increase expectations that the Fed will resume its quantitative easing, which is unfavourable for the dollar. Against this background, USD/JPY may resume its decline to the level of 148.80. | |||||
| The US. Non-Farm Payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 04.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The state of the labour market is one of two key indicators that the US Federal Reserve looks at when deciding whether it needs to change its monetary policy. Until recently, the employment situation hadn't caused any concerns. The economy was actively creating new jobs, and the unemployment rate floated around 4.1%. Global analysts expect the rate at which new jobs are created to slow down in March. If it does, it will increase expectations that the Fed will cut its key interest rate by the end of H1 2025. This is unfavourable for the dollar, but it's good news for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could continue to rise to 3150,00. | |||||
