31.03.25 - 04.04.25
Results of the previous week
| VIX +45.58% | COCOA +6.52% | EURUSD +1.97% |
NQ -10.66% | PA -10.45% | NG -9.29% |
Last week, US indices were down after Donald Trump imposed widespread trade tariffs. The lowest tariff level is 10%, while imports from certain countries, such as China, exceed 50%. China responded fairly quickly with reciprocal tariffs of 34% on American goods. Trade wars could seriously damage the economy, a fact that has triggered a stock market sell-off.
The new tariffs have negatively impacted the US dollar, as well. The US Dollar Index lost 2.1% in a day, which was the sharpest intraday drop since 2005. The weaker dollar has resulted in gold once again setting a new all-time high. At the moment of writing on 4 April 2025, it was around $3167 per ounce.
Brent crude oil prices are falling sharply. When this digest was penned, the energy resource had declined to 65.50, its lowest level since 2021. There are two factors pressuring the energy resource. One is the trade wars Trump started. The other is a statement from eight OPEC+ countries that they would increase production volume. In May 2025, they will start producing an additional 411,000 barrels per day.
Key events of the current week
| The US. US Federal Reserve meeting minutes XAU/USD | DATE 09.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Federal Reserve's latest meeting went just the way that many had predicted, with the key interest rate remaining untouched. Trump's tariffs caused a market reaction, and China has already imposed reciprocal measures of goods from the United States. Now, Europe's response is up next. Raising tariffs could simultaneously increase inflation and slow economic growth. That's why the regulator finds itself in a tough spot. It needs to provide economic stimulus by cutting interest rates, but it can't take these measures with inflation still high. This is unfavourable for the dollar but positive for gold, which is denominated in it. In this context, XAU/USD may begin to rise again towards $3200. | |||||
| The US. Inflation rate USD/JPY | DATE 10.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
At its past three meetings, the Fed has kept its key interest rate unchanged. As a result, inflation has fallen to 2.8%. Global analysts expect this trend to continue in the March inflation data. This is a negative factor for the dollar, as it allows the Federal Reserve to resume the cycle of monetary policy easing amid signs of a cooling economy. The manufacturing PMI fell below the 50 mark, which signals that the sector is experiencing a slowdown. The services PMI dropped more than had been expected, falling to 50.8 instead of the forecasted 53.0). In this environment, USD/JPY may continue to drop towards 143.00. | |||||
| The UK. GDP growth rate GBP/USD | DATE 11.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's economy is seeing mixed growth rates. The manufacturing sector remains in decline. The unemployment rate remains at 4.4%. Global analysts expect GDP growth rates to increase slightly in the reporting period after following last month. Coupled with the sentiment created by Trump's tariff decision, this is good news for the pound sterling. In this context, GBP/USD could resume upward movement to 1.3200. | |||||
