11.08.25 - 15.08.25
Results of the previous week
| COFFEE +7.07% | BA +4.52% | YM +1.95% |
VIX -7.36% | NG -5.70% | WT -3.17% |
Last week, US indices were up. US Consumer Price Index data reflected no change in inflation. The lack of strengthening inflation pushed expectations of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting higher. That, in turn, buoyed indices.
The currency market recorded mixed dynamics. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut didn't help the dollar strengthen very much. Meanwhile, individual macroeconomic reports supported the dollar's opponents. For example, UK GDP growth and industrial production data came in above forecasts, pushing the pound higher.
Brent oil prices stabilised in a narrow range between $65.50 and $66.70 per barrel. Markets are lying low in the run-up to the meeting between the US and Russian presidents, which may bring certain changes to trade tariffs (i.e., secondary sanctions for countries that buy Russian oil) and to geopolitical conditions.
Key events of the current week
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 20.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Trump's updated tariff policy is making its own adjustments to the inflation situation. Global analysts expect inflation in the UK to rise significantly. This means that the Bank of England won't be able to continue easing its monetary policy to stimulate the economy. The high interest rate would be favourable for the British pound. In this context, GBP/USD may rise toward 1.3700. | |||||
| US Federal Reserve meeting minutes XAU/USD | DATE 20.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflation remains above the Fed's target level, and new tariffs could accelerate price increases. Initially, the Fed didn't signal that it would make a rate cut in September, but data showing the US labour market's weakness changed expectations. According to CME Group estimates, the probability of a rate cut on 17 September is over 90%. Hints of a rate cut are unfavourable for the dollar but favourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD may begin to rise again to around 3,370.00. | |||||
| Germany. Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD | DATE 21.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy continues to show signs of cooling. Because the German economy is predominantly industrialised, manufacturing PMI data are particularly important. Manufacturing is having a difficult moment as many large manufacturers cut back on production and make staff redundant. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI has been in recession territory for a long time. Global analysts expect it to remain below 50 in the reporting period as well, which is bad news for the euro. In this context, EUR/USD may decline to 1.1500. | |||||
