04.08.25 - 08.08.25
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +6.69% | Bitcoin +6.45% | GBPUSD +1.37% |
VIX -6.69% | PA -6.38% | WT -4.35% |
US stock indices started to rise again last week, but they didn't manage to return to their previous highs. They're receiving moderate support from strong corporate earnings reports. The rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September are helping indices. After weak labour market data were released, the chance of the Fed easing its monetary policy increased to 90%. The new tariffs imposed by Trump are holding back stronger growth.
In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar remains under pressure. It's losing ground against most major currencies as the prospects of a September rate cut increase. Trump also announced his replacement for the Federal Reserve governor spot that opened up after current governor Adriana Kugler resigned. This sparked rumours that Trump is attempting to affect the regulator's decision-making on rate cuts.
Brent crude oil has reached $65,80 a barrel. Fears of increasing imbalances in supply and demand are the primary source of pressure. OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which will lead to increased market supply. Demand for oil could decline as global economic activity slows, with new US tariffs coming into effect on a number of trade partners.
Key events of the current week
| Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment EUR/USD | DATE 12.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy remains weak. Energy prices and new tariffs on exports to the US are negatively impacting it. Some large companies are making staff redundant. In this context, global analysts expect economic sentiment to decline. If macroeconomic indicators deteriorate, it will signal that the ECB will continue to ease its monetary policy, which is bad news for the euro. In this scenario, we could see EUR/USD fall to somewhere around 1.1450. | |||||
| The US. Inflation rate XAU/USD | DATE 12.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflation remains above the Fed's target level. New tariffs on imports could accelerate price growth. Global analysts currently expect inflation to remain unchanged. These expectations indicate that the Fed made the right decision to keep its key rate unchanged. A high key inflation rate is favourable for the dollar but negative for dollar-denominated assets such as gold. In such a scenario, the XAU/USD could fall to as low as 3330.00. | |||||
| The US. Retail sales USD/JPY | DATE 15.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales are an important indicator for gauging the health of the United States' service-oriented economy. The indicator has grown consistently over the past few months. However, according to the latest data, the labour market has become weaker. The economy created only 73,000 new jobs against a forecast of 106,000, and the data for the previous period were revised downwards. The worsening employment situation will cause consumer activity to drop, which global analysts reflect in their retail sales forecasts. The indicator's decline is negative for the dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY could decline to 144.90. | |||||
