18.08.25 - 22.08.25
Results of the previous week
| COFFEE +11.62% | XU +4.87% | XAGUSD +2.36% |
NG -8.74% | VIX -5.56% | NZDUSD -0.84% |
US indices underwent a downward correction last week. The move was driven by corporate news and incoming macroeconomic reports. In addition, some US Fed officials have made statements that they don't consider the current monetary policy to be unnecessarily tight and see the need to keep the current key interest rate unchanged since inflation risks exceed risks to the labour market.
In the forex market, the dollar strengthened moderately against most major currencies. It was supported by higher bond yields, as well as reports about disagreements among the Fed representatives regarding the expediency of cutting the current rate. However, Powell's Friday speech, in which the markets saw his willingness to cut rates in September, made significant adjustments to the dynamics.
Brent oil prices approached the upper boundary of the range between $65.50 and $67.00 per barrel. The latest data show a 6.01 million barrel decline in US commercial oil stocks. That reinforced expectations of higher demand, which was the main driver for higher prices.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Durable goods orders USD/JPY | DATE 26.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Global analysts expect a further decline in durable goods orders. This is a worrying signal because fewer orders mean a slowdown in manufacturing production and investment. Lower key macroeconomic indicators could push the US Federal Reserve to ease its monetary policy more quickly, which would be unfavourable for the dollar. In these conditions, USD/JPY could decline to 146.00. | |||||
| The US. GDP growth rate XAU/USD | DATE 28.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that decisions about its key rate depend solely on incoming macroeconomic data. Data from recent weeks remain contradictory, with the labour market showing lower performance, while retail sales are rising, and inflation remains high. The next big report is GDP growth rate data. Global analysts expect the index to rise, which would make it less likely that the Fed will cut rates soon. This scenario is good news for the dollar, but negative for dollar-denominated assets, including gold. In this context, XAU/USD may continue to decline towards 3,340.00. | |||||
| Germany. Retail sales EUR/USD | DATE 29.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy has been severely impacted by shifting supply chains and rising gas prices. Large companies are cutting back and even completely suspending production. The pressure intensified after the announcement of new tariffs on exports to the US. Because of this, companies are making employees redundant. Global analysts expect German retail sales growth to slow down, which is unfavourable for the euro. A weakening economy may force the ECB to resume rate cuts. In that scenario, EUR/USD could continue to decline towards 1.1600. | |||||
