22.09.25 - 26.09.25
Results of the previous week
| PL +14.33% | NG +13.53% | BRN +3.85% |
MRNA -7.90% | VIX -3.05% | NZDUSD -1.24% |
US indices began a correction last week. Data on the US economy's health kept them from rising. GDP growth rate figures were also revised upwards. The number of unemployment claims also decreased. This increased expectations that the US Fed won't rush to perform a new round of rate cuts.
In the forex market, the dollar strengthened as expectations around the Fed's rate decisions changed. Gold was an exception. It hit a new all-time high after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast in anticipation of further price pressure.
Brent crude oil prices remain between $65.00 and $69.30. The energy resource received short-term support amid fears of supply disruptions as a result of the conflict in the Middle East and a decline in commercial stocks in the United States. However, pessimistic forecasts for global economic growth are creating expectations of lower demand and preventing oil prices from developing an upward rally.
Key events of the current week
| Germany's Unemployment figures EUR/USD | DATE 30.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy is struggling amid high energy prices and worsening foreign trade conditions. Many companies are reducing manufacturing volumes and making workers redundant. Global analysts expect Germany's unemployment rate to rise in the reporting period. A cooldown in the Eurozone's biggest economy is a negative signal for the euro, as it could push the ECB to cut interest rates further. In that scenario, EUR/USD could continue to decline towards 1.1570. | |||||
| The US. Manufacturing PMI (ISM) USD/JPY | DATE 01.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US manufacturing sector has been in the recession zone for half a year now, which is a worrying sign for the economy. Despite the tariffs imposed by Trump, there still hasn't been an increase in domestic manufacturing, which could lead to shortages and higher prices on goods. That would increase inflation in the long term. High inflation keeps the US Fed from quickly cutting interest rates. This is good news for the dollar. Against this background, USD/JPY could rise to 150.70. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 03.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The latest US weekly unemployment benefit claims data were encouraging. As a result, global analysts expect the number of new non-farm jobs to rise. The state of the labour market is one of the main indicators that the US Federal Reserve takes into account when deciding its key interest rate. This is a good signal for the dollar. A stable labour market and high inflation rate allow the regulator to keep a more hawkish monetary policy. However, the Fed's high interest rate is putting pressure on gold prices. XAU/USD could drop to 3,700.00. | |||||
