14.10.24 - 18.10.24
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSD +8.89% | Bitcoin +4.75% | TF +1.13% |
NG -9.24% | WT -3.17% | VIX -1.62% |
US indices have moved in different directions and lack catalysts to continue their upward rally. In addition, one factor holding them back is the fact that the US Federal Reserve sees the recent spate of good macrostatistics as a reason not to hurry with another interest rate cut. Investor caution is also increasing as the US election approaches, with just over two weeks left to go.
In the forex market, the dollar is showing resilience, strengthening against most opponents. The reason for this movement, however, is not just because of the dollar's strength. For example, the ECB has cut its own key interest rate, and the regulator's head has signalled that the body is seeing signs that the region's economy is cooling. UK inflation fell more than global analysts had forecast, which gives the Bank of England grounds for additional monetary policy easing.
Brent crude oil prices collapsed back to $74 per barrel. The energy resource came under pressure from reduced fears of an Israeli attack on Iranian targets. In addition, demand from China (one of the largest oil consumers) is not meeting expectations.
Key events of the current week
Bank of Canada rates decision | DATE 23.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Bank of Canada has cut its key interest rate three times. Global analysts expect the Canadian regulator to take this step for a fourth time. Overall, the central bank has every reason to soften its monetary policy. According to the latest data, Canada's inflation rate fell to 1.6%, well below the target set by the regulator. At the same time, the economy is quite weak. With GDP growth at zero, lower borrowing costs are needed to support it. A rate cut by the Bank of Canada is negative for the Canadian dollar. In this scenario, USD/CAD will continue to rise towards 1.3875. | |||||
Germany. IFO Business Climate Index | DATE 25.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Despite the challenges faced by the German economy, the business community in Germany generally views the current situation and the outlook for the next six months as quite optimistic. The IFO business climate index held above 80. In the reporting period, global analysts expect the indicator to rise slightly, which is partly due to the ECB's decision to reduce its key interest rate to support the economy. The leading Eurozone member-state's improved macroeconomic statistics are good news for the euro. In this context, EUR/USD may pull back to 1.0900. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 25.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders essentially reflect the future activity of US companies because these are orders placed with manufacturers. Taking into account these orders, companies form an investment plan and changes in the number and structure of personnel. Global analysts expect the indicator to fall. This is unfavourable for the US economy and the US dollar because the unstable situation allows the US Federal Reserve to hurrying to cut its key interest rate again. However, what's bad news for the dollar is favourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD may rise to 2750.00. | |||||
