The rise of gold this year might have come as a shock to many, not necessarily due to the simple fact that it's gaining ground, but rather because of the sheer rapidity of its ascent. At $4,066 as of 20 November, the yellow metal has now gained 55% on the yearly chart. What's more, prices even climbed briefly above $4,300 per Troy ounce during October's period of high volatility. Sure, that might not sound all that impressive in an investing world that uses stocks and crypto as a barometer, but for a traditional safe-haven asset like gold, that is quite the turn-up for the books. Despite pulling away from this record high, 2025 is actually gold's best year since 1979, and even the drop in global equities has not caused it to miss a beat.
When we consider the global context, it's understandable that gold should be in demand. Geopolitical uncertainty is deepening by the day, with tensions now high both in Europe and Central America, while an escalating trade war with China threatens global trade. Add to this the recent US government shutdown, sovereign debt crisis and loss of faith in fiat, and you've got a tested recipe for a flight to safety. But it isn't just investors who are buying up the precious metal. This latest gold rush is being sustained by elevated central-bank buying amid waning trust in the US dollar and the present immaturity of Bitcoin as an alternative store of value. In this article, we'll look at all these factors and more key trends liable to influence the gold price going into 2026 and beyond.
Hard reboot
A failure to agree on fiscal legislation for 2026 led to the longest shutdown of the US government in history. When the 43-day hiatus came to an end on 12 November, things didn't suddenly return to normal. Economic and labour market data had not been reported for almost six full weeks, during which time fear and speculation took hold in the absence of hard numbers. It's no surprise, then, that this was precisely when gold reached its all-time high above $4,300. However, on 20 November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release its first real labor market data since then, with September's numbers finally set to be published. October's data may never see the light of day, however.
Meanwhile, the 19 November release of the Fed's latest meeting on 28-29 October revealed deep division and called into serious question the possibility of further rate cuts before year's end. The notes even show that some governors were reluctant to approve the regulator's latest 0.25% in October. Of course, this was during the shutdown, and now that the government is open and data is being collected, it's quite possible that the Fed will change its sentiment, especially if the next jobs and inflation reports prove positive. That said, interest-rate swaps now imply about a 50-50 chance of a December reduction after all but pricing in a quarter-point move just two weeks ago. Furthermore, the likelihood of lasting economic damage having been done by the shutdown is fairly high, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that 1.5% of Q4 growth will be wiped off the US economy. In any case, it's win-win for gold, as not only will it stand to benefit from the pessimism associated with poor economic prospects, but if the Fed does cut rates, it will also see increased demand from holders of cash and bonds.
Central peak
The big difference in this gold run has been the unusually high velocity of the ascent. The yellow metal jumped 100% from $2,000 to over $4,000 in just 18 months, a speed of gaining that is almost unheard of in precious metals markets. In addition to the general uncertainty and fear covered above, which have certainly contributed towards individual rallies along the way, there are more factors that have sustained this bull market and allowed for ever-higher spikes while simultaneously preventing corrections. These are the steady institutional demand and widespread, consistent central bank purchasing amid a low-yielding and unstable US dollar.
Central bank accumulation, particularly in China, has been the dominant force supporting gold price forecasts into 2026. According to data from Discovery Alert, 23 countries' regulators bolstered their gold reserves during the first half of 2025, which represents a clear and coordinated divergence from traditional reserve compositions. In contrast to traditional investors, central banks tend to accumulate over months or years and often purchase significantly higher volumes, which exerts steady buying pressure that helps soften corrections and reinforce price floors. At an estimated 950 tonnes of annual purchases by central banks in 2025, which is around three times the average volume purchased, gold now enjoys sustained institutional commitment that should cushion it against any short-term price movements. Major investment funds are also reconsidering their historic precious metals exposure of between 2%-5%, with gold ETFs showing an 880% year-over-year surge in inflows to reach $14 billion in September 2025. And as concerns about currency debasement, fiscal sustainability, and long-term purchasing power of fiat continue to grow, we're only likely to see this full-spectrum demand for gold increase.
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