02.09.24 - 06.09.24
Results of the previous week
| VIX +22.03 | NG +5.73% | CORN +4.37% |
WT -5.36% | NQ -4.22% | PA -3.09% |
US indices came under pressure last week. On the one hand, it looks like a technical correction after testing recent highs. On the other hand, markets are evaluating data from companies and macroeconomic statistics. It's worth noting that macro reports are showing mixed numbers that don't make another Fed rate cut a sure thing before the end of the year. That is disappointing news for stock indices.
Insufficiently strong macroeconomic statistics and the Federal Reserve's approaching September meeting, where it's expected to make its first rate cut in a long time, are putting pressure on the US dollar, which weakened against other major currencies. That said, the US currency's opponents had their own reasons to strengthen. For example, Germany's industrial orders data were positive, which was sufficient reason to conclude that the German economy is not as weak as it seemed.
Brent crude oil prices collapsed to $72.70, the lowest point since June 2023. The energy resource came under pressure amid concerns about demand from China, where electric cars are gaining popularity. In addition, tensions in the Middle East are easing somewhat, reducing the risks of disruption to oil supplies.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Unemployment rate | DATE 10.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The situation on the labour market has a strong impact on the state of the region's economy. The situation in UK can be characterised as a mixed bag. On the one hand, the unemployment rate has fallen slightly, though global analysts expect it to stabilise at 4.2% in the reporting period. However, if we look at the employment dynamics indicator, things are less optimistic. The rate of employment growth is declining, which is cause for concern since falling employment has a negative impact on domestic consumption. That's why weak labour market data is bad news for the British pound. Against this background, GBPUSD may decline to 1.3000. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 11.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US price pressure continues to fall. The indicator is still above the US Federal Reserve's target level, but the regulator has made its quite clear that where it stands on easing monetary policy at its meeting in September. Global analysts expect the US inflation rate to fall. If it does, this will be another argument in favour of the Fed saying it's time to cut rates. These expectations are bad news for the dollar. That said, a weaker dollar is good news for dollar-denominated assets such as gold. Against this backdrop, XAU/USD may test the recent highs and target the 2550.00 level. | |||||
ECB rates decision | DATE 12.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The ECB has already cut rates once this year. At this stage, global analysts expect the European regulator to take another step to ease monetary policy. This is with good reason. According to the latest data, inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.2%, which is slightly above the regulator's target level. At the same time, the economy needs to be stimulated by easing monetary policy. A cut to the key interest rate by the ECB would be bad news for the euro. In this scenario, EUR/USD may decline to 1.1000. | |||||
