22.12.25 - 26.12.25
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSDA +12.61% | NG +2.32% | ES +1.15% |
SPCE -10.26% | VIX -3.15% | USDJPY -0.99% |
US indices advanced last week as part of the traditional Santa Claus rally. Markets received moderate support from upbeat macroeconomic data, with US GDP growth accelerating to 4.3%, above analysts’ expectations. Despite the strong economic momentum, investors continue to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish monetary stance in the near term.
The US dollar remained under pressure for most of the week. Taking advantage of USD weakness, gold once again pushed to fresh all-time highs. The rally in the precious metal is driven by expectations of accommodative Fed policy, as well as persistently elevated geopolitical risks, particularly surrounding Venezuela.
Meanwhile, Brent crude briefly climbed to $62.16 per barrel. Oil prices continue to find support from geopolitical pressure on supply, linked to US actions affecting Venezuela and Nigeria. At this stage, these factors are limiting concerns over a significant oversupply in the global oil market.
Key events of the current week
| US Federal Reserve meeting minutes XAU/USD | DATE 30.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The regulator highlighted heightened uncertainty around the economic outlook. The release of the meeting minutes should provide greater clarity on the Fed’s next steps. With labour market indicators weakening and inflation rising only modestly, the central bank is likely to maintain a relatively dovish policy bias. This is unfavourable for the US dollar but good news for gold. In this context, XAU/USD could rise to 4550,00. | |||||
| The US. Initial jobless claims USD/JPY | DATE 31.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
When setting monetary policy, the Fed focuses on two key variables: inflation and the labour market. While price pressures are gradually increasing, policymakers view this as temporary and expect inflation to return to the 2% target over time. The labour market, however, remains a growing concern. Unemployment continues to edge higher, and global economists expect weekly jobless claims to increase further. This would signal continued deterioration in employment conditions. Such data would strengthen expectations of an additional Fed rate cut, putting further pressure on the US dollar. In this scenario, USDJPY could decline towards the 154.50 level. | |||||
![Pre-Holiday Period Sets Market Mood [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_1590824863_31.jpg?itok=Y3wB9-QC)
![Surprises for the Fed [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_1912296349_32.jpg?itok=w1ZmsXZS)
