06.10.25 - 10.10.25
Results of the previous week
| VIX +19.4% | PA +12.13% | XAGUSD +6.52% |
NG -8.06% | COCOA -7.17% | TF -1.79% |
The US government shutdown is still going on with no end in sight. Congress has yet to approve a budget, and many government employees remain on unpaid leave. It's difficult to predict how long this suspension in government work will last. Amid this uncertainty, US stock indices have stopped moving up but remain close to their previous highs until Trump announced a new round of trade escalation with China, which caused a sharp drop.
In the forex market, the dollar is strengthening against most major currencies. Despite the shutdown, it retains its status as a global reserve currency. Markets continue to see it as a safe-haven asset, just like gold, which has once again reached a new all-time high. The dollar received additional support after comments from the Federal Reserve, which isn't planning to accelerate the pace of rate cuts just yet.
Brent oil prices returned to $64.30 after a short-term rise. Expectations that Middle Eastern tensions will stabilise and OPEC+'s decisions to increase production are putting pressure on the energy resource's prices. Both factors are increasing concerns that the market will be oversaturated with supply.
Key events of the current week
| Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment EUR/USD | DATE 14.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy remains weak. High energy prices and new US tariffs continue to add pressure. Some large companies are making employees redundant, which is exacerbating the situation. Global analysts expect economic sentiment to decline. If macroeconomic indicators drop, it will signal that the ECB will continue to ease its monetary policy, which is bad news for the euro. EUR/USD could drop to around 1.1445. | |||||
| The US. Inflation rate XAU/USD | DATE 15.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflation continues to exceed the Fed's target inflation rate. New tariffs could speed up inflation. Global analysts expect inflation to increase moderately. This could cause the Fed to review its plans. Instead of two rate cuts by the end of 2025, the regulator may limit itself to just one. A high key inflation rate is favourable for the dollar but negative for dollar-denominated assets such as gold. XAU/USD could drop to 3,940.00. *The publication of the report may be postponed to a later date | |||||
| The UK. GDP growth rate GBP/USD | DATE 16.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's economy is showing weak growth. High energy prices, changes in supply chains and harsh US sanctions continue to put it under pressure. Global analysts expect the GDP growth rate for the month to come in at around 0.1%. This result is unlikely to change expectations about what the Bank of England will do with its key interest rate, but even a slight improvement for one of its key macroeconomic indicators would be good news for the pound. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD could rise to 1.3400. | |||||
