29.09.25 - 03.10.25
Results of the previous week
| Bitcoin +8.17% | NG +4.43% | TF +2.27% |
COCOA -11.17% | GME -6.93% | HO -3.22% |
The US government has shut down, leaving federal workers on unpaid leave. That rattled markets but didn't cause US indices to drop. Markets preferred to react to the expectation of a further rate cut by the Federal Reserve rather than the government coming to a halt. Moreover, this kind of thing has happened regularly in past years, and, for the moment, there's no reason to believe that this shutdown will last too long.
As a result of the shutdown, the release of US macroeconomic data is indefinitely postponed. The dollar's reaction has been restrained. Major current pairs have remained in their previous ranges. One exception was gold, which set a new all-time high as it approached $3,900.00.
Brent crude oil prices have dropped to around $64.30, marking a four-month low. Concerns that OPEC+ would increase its production by 137,000 bpd, which would flood the market, added to the pressure. Uncertainty in the US economy due to the government shutdown was an additional negative factor.
Key events of the current week
| New Zealand. RBNZ's interest rate decision NZD/USD | DATE 08.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
New Zealand's economic growth has slowed significantly, with GDP falling by 0.9% in Q2. However, inflation is also going down. In these conditions, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has every reason to ease its monetary policy. Global analysts expect a 0.25% rate cut, which would be unfavourable for the New Zealand dollar. In this scenario, NZD/USD could fall to around 0.5750. | |||||
| Germany. Industrial production EUR/USD | DATE 08.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany remains an industrial economy, with manufacturing accounting for a key share of the country's GDP. Rising energy prices and logistics disruptions have forced many industrial plants to suspend their operations. This has resulted in a decline in production volumes, which is bad for the country's economy and the euro. With the Eurozone's largest economy cooling, the European Central Bank may consider further rate cuts. As a result, EUR/USD could drop to 1.1600. | |||||
| US Federal Reserve meeting minutes USD/JPY | DATE 08.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The government shutdown has complicated the Federal Reserve's work. The release of macroeconomic statistics is now delayed, and the regulator doesn't have a full set of data for its analysis. As a result, its rate decisions will have to be made virtually blindly, which may prompt the regulator to change its rhetoric. Global analysts expect the Fed to cut rates two more times by the end of the year. That would be unfavourable for the dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY could decline to 148.00. | |||||
