19.01.26 - 23.01.26
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSD +11.69% | NG +6.39% | EURUSD +2.11% |
COCOA -17.28% | XRPUSD -6.09% | VIX -5.22% |
US indices have been trading mixed this week. At the beginning of the week, they saw some losses amid geopolitical uncertainty. The whole world was unsettled by the situation in Greenland and Trump's newly announced tariffs. Fears subsided, however, and the indices recovered their losses.
In the forex market, the dollar was mostly down, driven by negative expectations for the US economic outlook in the context of Trump's new tariffs. The situation didn't change even after he reversed his decision. Geopolitical tensions continue to push precious metals to new highs.
Brent crude oil prices are holding between $63.20 and $65.40. The energy resource is receiving support from escalating tensions in the Middle East after Trump announced that American ships are heading toward Iran, the region's largest oil producer. At the same time, concerns about global demand for oil are keeping it from rising higher.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Durable goods orders USD/JPY | DATE 26.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Global analysts predict that durable goods orders will rise in the reporting period. This is a good signal for the economy because more orders mean that investment in manufacturing is rising and production is picking up pace. Improving key macroeconomic indicators could prompt the US Federal Reserve to pause its monetary easing for longer, which would be good news for the dollar. In these conditions, USD/JPY could rise to 155.70. | |||||
| The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision XAU/USD | DATE 28.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is stable. The labour market is showing signs of recovery, with jobless claims falling to 1.849 million from a revised 1.875 million. GDP growth is also accelerating. According to the latest data, it reached 4.4%, beating the forecast of 4.3%. Inflation in the US remains steady at 2.7%, which is just slightly above the Federal Reserve's target rate. The regulator also says that this is a temporary phenomenon. Altogether, this means that the Fed will most likely meet global analysts' expectations at its upcoming meeting and keep the interest rate steady at 3.75%. A hawkish monetary policy is favourable for the dollar, but bad news for gold, which is denominated in the US currency. In this context, XAU/USD could decline to 5,000.00. | |||||
| Germany. Unemployment rate changes EUR/USD | DATE 30.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy is still weak. The country's GDP annual growth rate is no higher than 0.3%. Some large manufacturers are closing. In December, for example, a Volkswagen plant closed for the first time in 88 years. Others, meanwhile, are moving their production to other countries. This is dealing a blow to employment numbers, with global analysts expecting unemployment to rise, which is bad news for the euro. Against this background, EUR/USD could form a downward correction toward 1.1760. | |||||
