17.11.25 - 21.11.25
Results of the previous week
| NG +6.67% | AAPL +1.74% | USDJPY +0.84% |
Litecoin -8.41% | VIX -2.05% | NQ -1.60% |
US equity indices recorded declines last week. The key pressure factor was the shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. According to CME Group data, the probability of a rate cut in December has fallen to 39.6%.
In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar continues to strengthen. In addition to the revised expectations for the Fed’s policy stance, the American currency was supported by stronger-than-anticipated labour market data. In September, the economy created 119,000 new jobs, while analysts had forecast an increase of 50,000.
Brent crude prices are moving lower. Hopes for reduced geopolitical tensions are providing downward pressure. News of an increase in the number of active US drilling rigs was also taken negatively, as this is expected to add further supply to the market.
Key events of the current week
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision NZD/USD | DATE 26.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
New Zealand’s economy is slowing. According to the latest data, GDP growth rates have fallen by 0.9%. At the same time, inflation remains at a relatively low level: since the beginning of 2024, the indicator has not exceeded 1%. This combination of macroeconomic trends allows the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to proceed with a rate cut. A more accommodative monetary policy is negative for the New Zealand dollar, especially against the backdrop of the Fed’s comparatively tighter stance.The NZDUSD pair may continue to decline towards 0.5480. | |||||
| United States: Durable Goods Orders USD/JPY | DATE 26.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Global analysts expect a decline in durable goods orders. This is a worrying signal: falling orders indicate slower production and reduced industrial investment. A deterioration in one of the key macroeconomic indicators is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to take decisive action regarding monetary policy in December, but it may weigh on the dollar in the short term. Under these conditions, the USDJPY pair may decline towards 155.00. | |||||
| Germany: Unemployment Rate EUR/USD | DATE 28.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany’s labour market is showing signs of cooling. This trend is driven by slower economic growth, a decline in industrial output, and workforce reductions implemented by major companies. Global analysts expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6.4% in the reporting period. Germany is the largest economy within the eurozone, and therefore, weakness in its macroeconomic indicators is negative for the euro. The EURUSD pair may decline towards 1.1400. | |||||
