12.05.25 - 16.05.25
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +19.46% | VIX +9.15% | PA +2.86% |
NG -11.99% | MRNA -3.51% | USDJPY -2.40% |
Stocks are up again. The positive movement was sparked by the US and China's agreement to reduce their reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. This gave markets hope that the countries could agree on reasonable tariffs for the longer term. These expectations are supporting market optimism.
In the forex market, the dollar saw mixed movement. It lost ground at the beginning of the week but then recovered all its losses. Gold prices fell as market sentiment improved, with interest shifting to riskier assets.
Brent crude oil prices were also mixed. They increased to 66.80 on news that the US and China are reducing tariffs for 90 days. Trump's statements about a possible agreement with Iran put pressure on prices. This could potentially increase the supply of oil on the market, which would once again result in an imbalance between supply and demand.
Key events of the current week
| Australia. RBA's key interest rate decision AUD/USD | DATE 20.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The latest data indicate that inflation in Australia remains unchanged at 2.4% year over year. That's the lowest point since Q1 2021. In addition to that, consumer expenditures decreased. These indicators, combined with the risks to global growth, support monetary policy easing. Global analysts expect the RBA to cut its key interest rate to 3.85%. This would be unfavourable for the Australian dollar, especially given that the US Federal Reserve has no plans to ease its monetary policy for the moment. In these conditions, AUD/USD may decline to 0.6325. | |||||
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 21.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the UK has fallen for the past three months, which has allowed the Bank of England to respond to the overall macroeconomic decline by cutting its key interest rate. However, global analysts expect that inflation in the UK could increase sharply in the reporting period. This would force the central bank to pause its monetary policy easing, which is favourable for the pound in the short term. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD could rise to 1.3400. | |||||
| Germany. Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD | DATE 22.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany is an industrial economy, so data on its manufacturing sector are important for assessing the economy's health. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has been below 50 for a long time, which indicates an economic contraction. Global analysts expect this number to rise slightly during the reporting period from the previous value of 48.4, but still remain below 50. Weakness in this key sector of the Eurozone's largest economy is unfavourable for the euro. As such, the EUR/USD pair could fall to 1.1060. | |||||
![The US Dollar Remains Under Pressure [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/default_images/economyc-indicators-2_5.jpg?itok=VgszlnhU)
