24.11.25 - 28.11.25
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSD +11.28% | NG +2.29% | YM +1.18% |
VIX -5.78% | BABA -2.39% | HO -1.34% |
Last week, US indices began to rise again. They were buoyed by reporting from Bloomberg that Kevin Hassett would be appointed as the Federal Reserve chairman. The candidate stated that he intends to serve Americans and President Trump. This means that it's highly likely that Trump's wish for a low key interest rate will be granted.
In the forex market, the US dollar has mostly declined, which has allowed gold to recover some of its losses. The euro returned to the top boundary of the previously established range. The reason for this is the change in expectations about what the Fed will do with its interest rate given the chances that Hassett will likely be the next Fed chairman.
Brent crude oil prices are ending the week without big changes. Anticipation of Ukraine and Russia soon concluding a peace agreement is putting pressure on the energy resource since markets aren't excluding the possibility that sanctions on Russian oil will be lifted. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is keeping prices from dropping further. The plan approved for Q1 2026 to leave the oil production cap at December 2025 levels will likely remain unchanged.
Key events of the current week
| The Eurozone. Inflation rate EUR/USD | DATE 02.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The European economy continues to show signs that it's cooling down. Growth rates are slowing, and unemployment is increasing. The ECB cut its key interest rate to 2.15%. However, there are indications that the regulator will resume monetary policy easing measures. Global analysts expect Eurozone inflation to decline. Combined with the economic slowdown, this could push the European regulator to lower its rate further. That's bad news for the euro.The EUR/USD pair could drop to around 1.1400. | |||||
| The US. Services PMI (ISM) XAU/USD | DATE 03.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is showing resilience despite the longest US government shutdown in history. Some data for the previous period, such as non-farm payrolls, won't be released. This could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to make monetary policy decisions. As a result, the regulator will focus on available data. Global analysts expect to see a rise in the service sector PMI, which accounts for 75% of the US economy. The strong data allows the Fed to keep rates unchanged, which is good news for the dollar but unfavourable for dollar-denominated gold. XAU/USD could drop to 4,140.00. | |||||
| he US. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index USD/JPY | DATE 05.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US consumer sentiment index is at a five-month low, reflecting Americans' uncertainty about the economic outlook. Nevertheless, global analysts expect it to rise slightly, a sign of optimism stemming from the end of the shutdown. But even minor positive economic changes now serve as confirmation of the Fed's intention to keep the key interest rate unchanged at its December meeting. That's good news for the US dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY could rise to 157.50. | |||||
