26.01.26 - 30.01.26
Results of the previous week
| VZ +12.14% | VIX +4.21% | WT +1.96% |
PL -26.07% | COFFEE -6.85% | NQ -1.83% |
US stock indices saw mixed movement. They rose early in the week after Donald Trump announced his decision not to impose new tariffs on Europe. However, without new catalysts for continued upward momentum, investors engaged in profit-taking, and indices began to correct downward. Trump's statements that he wouldn't rule out further strikes on Iran in the absence of a nuclear deal added pressure.
In the currency market, the dollar was primarily under pressure. Gold and silver reached new all-time highs, and the euro rose to its highest levels since 2021. Geopolitical uncertainty continued to put pressure on the US currency, as did Trump's statement on the dollar's current weakness. Meanwhile, precious metals appeared overbought, and EU leaders expressed dissatisfaction with the euro's excessive strength, which ultimately led to a correction.
Brent crude prices briefly rose to $70.57 per barrel. In addition, the oil market is supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Trump stated that if Iran, one of the region's largest oil producers, refuses to sign a nuclear deal, the US could launch more extensive strikes than the ones it conducted in 2025.
Key events of the current week
| Bank of England interest rate decision GBP/USD | DATE 05.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
After declining for three months, inflation in the UK has started to rise again. The latest data indicate that inflation has hit an annualised rate of 3.4%. At the same time, GDP growth has slowed somewhat, which gives the Bank of England a difficult choice. The regulator has to balance the risks of accelerating inflation and an economic cooldown. Most analysts expect that the Bank of England will keep its key rate steady at 3.75%. This could be good news for the British pound. In this context, GBP/USD could start to rise again towards 1.3860. | |||||
| The ECB's monetary policy decision EUR/USD | DATE 05.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
In the waning days of January, the euro reached its highest level since 2021. Representatives of the European Central Bank began expressing dissatisfaction with the single currency's strong exchange rate since a high euro makes products manufactured in Eurozone countries less competitive. The ECB had previously indicated that it wasn't considering a further interest rate cut in the near future. Instead, it's expected to keep the rate unchanged at its upcoming meeting. However, market participants will focus on the ECB's comments about its next monetary policy steps and how it assesses the region's economic prospects. In this context, EUR/USD may decline to 1.1700. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 06.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US labour market is showing signs of cooling. Fewer jobs are being created, and global analysts expect this negative trend to continue. The labour market's health continues to be a key factor that influences the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Declining macroeconomic indicators are putting pressure on the dollar, which increases the chances of an interest rate cut. At the same time, a weaker dollar is good news for dollar-denominated assets, particularly gold.In this context, XAU/USD could return to around 4,775.00. | |||||
