28.07.25 - 01.08.25
Results of the previous week
| RDDT +24.30% | VIX +13.85% | XAUUSD +1.21% |
HG -21.18% | ETHUSD -6.90% | YM -2.63% |
Last week, US stock indices started a downward correction from their recent highs. The pullback was partly a result of the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged. The regulator failed to signal whether it would decide to ease its monetary policy in September. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that many sectors of the US economy are looking resilient. Uncertainty regarding Trump's trade policies remains an additional negative factor.
In the forex market, the dollar strengthened largely as a result of the Federal Reserve's decision to keep its key rate unchanged. At the same time, some currencies weakened against the dollar for their own reasons. For instance, the euro came under pressure after the European Union and the United States signed a trade agreement that requires EU countries to purchase energy resources from the United States and puts tariffs on EU exports to the US at 15%.
Brent crude oil prices briefly reached $72.83 per barrel, but by the end of the week, they had fallen back to $71.50. Energy prices rose on Trump's remarks that he would possibly impose secondary tariffs on countries that purchase oil from Russia. They then fell due to an expiry and the related transition to a new contract.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Services PMI (ISM) USD/JPY | DATE 05.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The economic situation in the United States remains stable. Following the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, Fed Chairman Powell noted that they're seeing moderate growth and stable indicators in many areas. Powell also made his traditional observation that a restrictive monetary policy is still necessary and that decisions to lower the key rate will be made if the economy gives off alarming signals. In this context, services PMI data becomes particularly important since this sector accounts for about 75% of US GDP. Global analysts expect the figure to rise, which is good news for the dollar. In this environment, USD/JPY could continue to climb to 150.00. | |||||
| Bank of England interest rate decision GBPU/USD | DATE 07.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
UK price pressure continues to rise. The latest data show the inflation rate was 3.6%, significantly higher than the Bank of England's target. Meanwhile, GDP only grew by 1.3% year-over-year. This leaves the government and the Bank of England with a difficult decision to make: should they stimulate the economy or contain inflation? Global analysts expect the British regulator to cut its rate again at its next meeting. This would be unfavourable for the pound, especially given the new trade agreement the UK signed with the US, which is negative for the UK economy. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD could continue to drop to 1.3000. | |||||
| The US. New jobless claims EUR/USD | DATE 07.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The state of the US labour market is one of the indicators that the US Federal Reserve takes into account when deciding its key interest rate. During his press conference, Jerome Powell noted that the labour market is stable. The Fed doesn't see a risk of unemployment rising but continues to closely monitor jobless claims data. If the indicator drops, it's good news for the dollar because it would allow the Fed to keep its key rate the same for longer. A strong dollar is unfavourable for its competitors, such as the euro. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD could continue to drop to somewhere around 1.1400. | |||||
