30.06.25 - 04.07.25
Results of the previous week
| TLRY +28.19% | HO +5.90% | TF +2.62% |
COCOA -9.89% | NG -4.89% | HG -1.58% |
US stock indices continued to rise last week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq once again set new highs. The indices are receiving support from positive macroeconomic stats. For instance, the US services PMI rose, while labour market data exceeded forecasts. Markets are also waiting for clarity about the United States' trade tariffs. Trump said that the situation will be completely clear by 9 July.
The US dollar has seen mixed performance. At the beginning of the week, it weakened against most other major currencies. However, macroeconomic reports changed expectations about what the Federal Reserve will do with its key interest rate. Before US labour market data were released, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates at its July meeting was 24%. Afterwards, the chances fell to 7%. This buoyed the dollar in the second half of the week.
At the beginning of the week, Brent crude oil prices rose to $69.20 per barrel as part of a technical correction after a strong decline. However, they weren't able to remain at that level. Expectations that OPEC+ countries will engage in a new production increase put pressure on oil prices. OPEC and its allies are preparing to once again increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August.
Key events of the current week
| US Federal Reserve meeting minutes XAU/USD | DATE 09.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is currently sending mixed signals. The finalised data for the country's Q1 GDP growth rate showed a 0.5% decrease, while payroll gains and personal expenditures were weak. Meanwhile, the US labour market data was unexpectedly positive. It showed a higher number of new jobs created than had been expected and a lower unemployment rate. Contradictory macroeconomic data are complicating the decision-making process for the Fed, which can't ignore the economic slowdown. The dovish tone from its meeting minutes, containing hints of a bigger-than-expected number of rate cuts in 2025, is unfavourable for the dollar but good news for gold. In this context, XAU/USD could continue to rise to 3385.00. | |||||
| The US. New jobless claims EUR/USD | DATE 10.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US labour market data for June were better than expected. The unemployment fell to 4.1% against a forecast of 4.2%. The weekly report gives insights into employment prospects. Global analysts expect the number of unemployment claims to rise during the reporting week, which will increase pressure on individual states' budgets. This is bad news for the dollar since a worsening labour market situation increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting its interest rate sooner than expected. In this context, the EUR/USD pair could continue to move upward toward 1.1900, especially since the ECB had previously made it clear that it's prepared to stop its monetary easing cycle. | |||||
| The UK. GDP growth rate XAU/USD | DATE 11.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's economy is once again showing signs of a cooldown. The GDP growth rate has fallen over the past two months. Meanwhile, inflation is significantly higher than the Bank of England's target rate. The unemployment rate is also rising. These signs indicate that the situation is developing along a stagflationary scenario. The Bank of England has a tough choice to make. It needs to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the high inflation rate doesn't allow it to do so. Weak macroeconomic indicators are bad news for the British pound. Against this background, GBP/USD may decline to 1.3500. | |||||
