14.04.25 - 18.04.25
Results of the previous week
| VIX +7.79% | XAUUSD +7.50% | BRN +3.24% |
NG -8.2% | YM -4.63% | USDJPY -2.07% |
Last week, stock indices attempted an upward correction but failed to do so. There are too many concerns about the global economic outlook amid the ongoing trade wars. High tariffs could seriously damage foreign trade and, as a result, industry. The retail sales report came in better than expected. This is easily explained by the higher demand for goods ahead of potential price hikes linked to higher tariffs on imports.
The dollar remains under pressure against most of its opponents, a consequence of Trump's unpredictable trade policy. Interest in the dollar is dropping as the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rises, a phenomenon that reflects investors' concerns about an economic slowdown. The dollar's place is being taken by gold, whose value continues to set all-time highs.
Prices on Brent crude oil returned to $66 per barrel. The energy resource is receiving support from positive macroeconomic data out of China for industrial output. In addition, Beijing announced that it's open to talking with the United States under certain conditions.
Key events of the current week
| Germany. Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD | DATE 23.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy has been dealt a significant blow by higher oil prices. Many companies are making staff redundant or completely closing factories. Over the past year, the GDP growth rate has been slowing, which signals a technical recession. The manufacturing PMI remains below 50, indicating a decline in this sector. Global analysts expect the index's value to remain low in the reporting period, which is bad news for the euro. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1,1360. | |||||
| The US. Durable goods orders XAU/USD | DATE 24.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders show future activity in the economy's manufacturing sector. Global analysts expect this indicator to drop during the reporting period due to changing trade conditions. Many countries have responded to Trump's tariffs by raising tariffs on goods imported from the United States. As a result, the number of orders placed for expensive goods will decrease. For example, China announced that it won't buy aeroplanes from the United States. This is unfavourable for the dollar, but it's good news for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could continue to rise to 3500,00. | |||||
| The UK. Retail sales GBP/USD | DATE 25.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales are an important indicator that shows how the British economy is faring. Global analysts expect this indicator to decline in the reporting period. This would be yet another sign of an economic cooldown. The slower GDP growth rate is a reason for the Bank of England to renew its monetary policy easing cycle. This is bad news for the British pound. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD could start to drop to somewhere around 1,3260. | |||||
