03.11.25 - 07.11.25
Results of the previous week
| NG +5.17% | VIX +5.02% | XAGUSD +3.45% |
COCOA -7.74% | NQ -2.39% | NZDUSD -1.13% |
Last week saw a lot of caution from investors who were waiting for new signals from the Federal Reserve and economic data from the US to understand if the regulator will cut its key interest rate in December. ISM Services data beat expectations and confirmed that the biggest sector of the economy is stable. This helped the dollar keep from falling, but expectations that the Fed will ease its monetary policy next year continue to hold back the US currency from rising.
European economic data remain weak. Eurozone inflation is slowing, while the manufacturing sector is showing signs of a recession. This is holding down demand for the euro, even with a moderately weak dollar. The pound has also found little support. The UK economy is slowing, and the Bank of England is increasingly talking about the need to keep rates unchanged, with no further hikes until inflation approaches the regulator's target level.
Key events of the current week
| GBP/USD: Employment report will set the direction GBP/USD | DATE 11.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
UK labour market data will be released on Tuesday. Employment and the average weekly earnings figures will help investors determine how long the Bank of England can maintain its current rate. A strong report would confirm that the economy is resilient, while weak data could boost expectations that the BoE will ease its monetary policy in the future. The pound continues to be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, while short-term dynamics continue to be determined by overall investor risk sentiment. If the pair breaks below 1.3000, it would open the way to 1.2850. Consolidation above 1.3200, on the other hand, would improve the technical picture. | |||||
| AUD/USD: Employment report at centre of attention AUD/USD | DATE 13.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Australian economic data could be a key factor for the Asian currency market. Higher employment would boost confidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its policy steady, while weak data could put pressure on the Australian dollar. The market remains cautious, and participants are mostly active near current consolidation levels. Until the pair breaks out of the range between 0.6520 and 0.6550, upside potential remains limited. If the data are weak, a pullback to 0.6450 could occur. | |||||
| EUR/USD: Attention's on US inflation (CPI, PPI) EUR/USD | DATE 13.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
TNext week, the market's attention will be focused on US inflation data. Investors are waiting for confirmation that prices will continue to slowly rise because this will determine what next steps can be expected from the Fed. Weak indicators could support the euro, while strong numbers could strengthen the dollar and return interest in the greenback. The technical picture remains neutral to bearish, and the currency pair is moving towards key ranges where market participants are assessing the balance of risks. If it breaks below 1.1460, it would open the path to 1.1405. On the other hand, a move above 1.1600 would be the first signal of a reversal. | |||||
