05.05.25 - 09.05.25
Results of the previous week
| ETHUSD +40.36% | COCOA +8.24% | NG +5.88% |
MRNA -12.70% | VIX -12.48% | EURUSD -1.80% |
Last week, US indices were up. The main reason for this was news that the US and China had resumed trade negotiations. Investors interpreted this as a signal of easing geopolitical pressures, which led to increased demand for risky assets. The Nasdaq reacted particularly actively, rising to around its local highs.
The US dollar fell against most of its opponents. The EUR/USD pair tested 1.1370 due to the Fed's decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged and neutral rhetoric from Chairman Jerome Powell. The dollar came under pressure from growing interest in the euro amid forecasts of a recovery in the eurozone economy and rising yields on European government bonds. The reduction of political tensions within the monetary bloc also played an important role.
The pound sterling also faced some pressure. The GBP/USD pair fell sharply after the Bank of England decided to cut its key interest rate to 4.25% on 8 May. The regulator cited a slowdown in economic activity, partly caused by trade restrictions imposed by the United States. The decision raised expectations that the BoE will continue to ease its monetary policy, which negatively affected the British currency.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Consumer Price Index EUR/USD | DATE 13.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflation data are expected to be released this week. Global analysts forecast that the core consumer price index will increase by 0.3% month over month. This aligns with current expectations, but even a small deviation could impact the Fed's interest rate stance. If inflation turns out to be weaker than expected, the market may price in an earlier rate cut, which would be unfavourable for the dollar. In this context, EUR/USD could test 1.1400. | |||||
| The UK. GDP growth rate GBP/USD | DATE 01.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
After the Bank of England cut its key interest rate, market participants have shifted their attention to economic activity indicators. Preliminary estimates show the GDP growth rate slowing month over month. High energy prices and falling PMI numbers are adding pressure. A decline in GDP would increase expectations of the Bank of England further easing its monetary policy and could negatively affect the pound. The GBP/USD pair could drop to 1.3100. | |||||
| The US. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech NQ | DATE 15.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a scheduled speech on Thursday. Investors expected clear statements on where the Fed is headed with its monetary policy, but the Fed leader made it clear the regulator would continue with its wait-and-see approach. If the Fed shifts to being open to cutting rates, the stock market could find some support. In that context, the Nasdaq could rise to 20,500. | |||||
