02.02.26 - 06.02.26
Results of the previous week
| AMC +9.49% | SOYBEAN +4.89% | BRN +1.30% |
COFFEE -12.19% | Bitcoin -9.96% | NQ -1.80% |
Last week, US indices fell. This was caused, on the one hand, by technical factors. The market had appeared overbought for a long time, which would have led to a correction sooner or later. On the other hand, not all companies that have released their earnings reports have had strong quarterly results. That, in turn, put pressure on indices.
The dollar gained ground on the euro and the pound in the forex market. This is partially due to the lower chances of the Federal Reserve easing its monetary policy in the first half of 2026. Furthermore, investors are turning their focus back to the state of the largest economies, and the US economy appears more resilient than Europe's and Britain's. Gold and silver continued their decline that started at the end of January. Volatility remains extremely high across these instruments. The drop in the metals' prices is linked to a wave of profit-taking by market participants who opened positions early in the rally.
After a dip at the start of the week, Brent crude oil prices approached $68.00 by the end of it. The high volatility is based on the ever-changing geopolitical situation. Signals of a potential reduction in tensions between the US and Iran caused prices to drop, although they began to rise again as expectations waned.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Retail sales EUR/USD | DATE 10.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is currently giving mixed signals. On the one hand, it's seeing high GDP growth rates that are beating forecasts. That's generally a positive factor. On the other hand, the labour market is cooling, which is raising alarm bells. In addition, US Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly noted that inflation is gradually slowing toward the target level, which allows the regulator to maintain a relatively soft monetary policy. Retail sales are a key indicator of the US economy's health. Global analysts expect US retail sales growth rates to slow, which is a bad sign for the dollar. In this context, the EUR/USD could rise to 1.1960. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 11.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
This report's release was postponed from 6 February to 11 February 11. The US labour market is showing signs of cooling, while the number of new jobs being created is gradually declining. Global analysts expect this negative trend to continue. The health of the labour market is one of the key factors the Federal Reserve looks at when making monetary policy decisions. Declining macroeconomic indicators are putting pressure on the dollar, which increases the chances of an interest rate cut. At the same time, a weaker dollar is good news for dollar-denominated assets, particularly gold. In this context, XAU/USD could return to around 5,050.00. | |||||
| The US. Inflation rate USD/JPY | DATE 13.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
While US inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the regulator is expressing confidence that the current price pressure is temporary. Moreover, global analysts expect inflation to decline in the reporting period. Amid a cooling labour market, lower inflation could trigger more discussions about the Fed cutting its key interest rate sooner than expected. This is a negative sign for the dollar. In this situation, the USD/JPY pair could decline to 154.60. | |||||
