09.06.25 - 13.06.25
Results of the previous week
| VIX +10.28% | HO +10.23% | EURUSD +1.41% |
BABA -7.54% | COCA -5.69% | PA -3.77% |
On Friday, Brent crude oil jumped sharply to $80 per barrel in reaction to news that Israel had launched air strikes on Iran. However, closer to the end of trading, prices were back between $73 and 74, showing a restrained and rational reaction by the market. The threat of large-scale destabilisation in the region remains limited because Iran is unlikely to mount a harsh response that could affect global infrastructure. If the country were to block the Strait of Hormuz or strike oil facilities, it would risk a full-scale US intervention. Moreover, China, the primary consumer of Iranian oil, is also uninterested in seeing higher prices. As a result, the market is consolidating again, with support around $72 per barrel.
The EUR/USD pair broke through 1.1600 on weak US inflation data. Core CPI and headline CPI were both below expectations, reinforcing the signal that Trump's tariff policy still isn't creating consistent inflationary pressure. After Trump announced possible agreements with China and given weakening external price momentum, the Fed has increasingly more room to pivot towards lower rates in the second half of the year, which creates systemic pressure on the dollar. The euro, on the other hand, is receiving support from the stable yield curve and demand for European assets. In technical terms, the risk of a short-term pullback remains, but the main trend is upward.
The Nasdaq (NQ) index briefly fell amid tensions in the Persian Gulf and weak macroeconomic statistics. Despite higher uncertainty, the market is seeing relative stability. The correction was limited, staying within the local range. Investors currently don't see grounds for a mass sell-off. Expectations that the Fed will ease its policy amid weak inflation are keeping the market from a deep decline. The index still has a support level at 21,300.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Retail sales USD/JPY | DATE 17.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US retail sales are forecast to rise by just 0.1% in May. This indicates weaker consumer demand, which is one of the last resilient components of the American economy. When combined with the weak inflation that we already see, this result would confirm a slowdown in economic activity. That would create the basis for higher expectations of an interest rate cut in the coming months. If that happens, the US currency would come under pressure, especially in relation to safe-haven assets. In this context, the USD/JPY pair could decline to 142.00, reflecting investor uncertainty and a gradual reversal in Fed policy. | |||||
| The US. Initial unemployment claims EUR/USD | DATE 18.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The number of first-time unemployment claims remains a sensitive indicator of how the labour market is faring. The number is forecast to come in around 240,000 to 250,000. Anything higher than that will be seen as a sign of growing problems in the economy. With inflation falling and demand stagnating, these data could boost investor confidence that the Fed will soon engage in a rate-easing cycle. This will put pressure on the dollar and support currencies linked to increased liquidity. In this scenario, the EUR/USD pair could rise to 1.1700, which would support the current upward momentum. | |||||
| The US. Federal Reserve meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference NQ | DATE 18.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Markets' main focus next week will be on the results of the Federal Reserve's scheduled meeting and Jerome Powell's accompanying press conference. While the Fed is likely to leave its key interest rate unchanged, all eyes will be on the tone of statements and updated economic forecasts. After slowing inflation and signs of cooling demand, the market is looking for hints of possible policy easing in the second half of the year. Any signal in this direction will be perceived as a catalyst for risky assets to rise. In this context, the Nasdaq index could consolidate above 22,000, getting a boost from falling bond yields and a renewed interest in the tech sector. | |||||
