17.07.23 - 21.07.23
Results of the previous week
| WHEAT +13.88% | DOGEUSD +10.6% | Z +3.06% |
TSLA -10.56% | NZDUSD -3.2% | PL -1.58% |
UK retail sales grew faster than expected in June despite continued high inflation of almost 8%. That's the highest for any major economy and remains challenging for many households. Some economists say the recent drop in energy prices will give consumers more funds to manage, which could support the country's economy.
In June, Japan's annual exports rose less than expected, reflecting weak demand from China and the West that continues to undermine the post-pandemic recovery of the world's third-largest economy. The weak yen and increase in the cost of imports have led to a two-year trade deficit in Japan. These factors have contributed to the decline of the Nikkei stock index in July.
Australia's employment rate in June exceeded expectations for the second month in a row. The unemployment rate remains as low as 50 years low, indicating that the labour market is still standing strong, increasing the probability of further rate hikes and the strengthening of the national currency.
Key events of the current week
The US. Interest rate decision | DATE 26.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Traders are almost sure the US Fed will resume rate hikes this week. At its meeting in June, the Fed kept rates unchanged, breaking the series of 10 consecutive rate hikes. Fed members' quarterly projections show an average expectation of two more quarter-point increases this year. Mary Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said last week that it was too soon for officials to claim they had done enough to restore price stability. Member of the Fed's Board of Governors Christopher Waller noted that it would take two more rate hikes this year to bring inflation down to the target level. In such a scenario, the USD/CHF pair may continue to move towards 0.8782. | |||||
Eurozone. Interest rate decision | DATE 27.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
On Thursday, the ECB will meet to decide on an interest rate hike from 4% to 4.25%. The market has long accounted for this increase, so the news will only moderately affect the euro and European stock indices. The ECB's rate decision meeting will be held a day after the US Fed makes its key interest rate decision. Therefore, both decisions should be looked at when evaluating the impact on the market. If the Fed is more dovish in its rhetoric, the ECB will confirm its intentions to further tighten its monetary policy. | |||||
Japan. Interest rate decision | DATE 28.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Japanese yen continues to decline as analysts don't see the Bank of Japan making any changes in its yield curve management this week. Many policymakers see no urgency in taking new steps on this issue as there's no consensus and no start date on when they can begin gradually cancelling the stimulus. | |||||
