08.12.25 - 12.12.25
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +10.51% | XAGUSD +9.30% | YM +2.56% |
NG -14.95% | VIX -5.75% | BRN -1.98% |
Last week, US indices showed growth. The Fed cut its interest rate to 3.75%. What's more, the regulator began to expand its balance sheets again after it announced that it would make $40 billion monthly Treasury bill purchases. All of this indicates that the Fed is easing its monetary policy and supporting the stock market.
Over in the forex market, the Fed's decision caused the dollar to lose ground. The price of gold has risen as investors buy amid concerns that US inflation will further strengthen. The euro received additional support from the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, as well as from the ECB's decisive decision to keep its monetary policy unchanged.
By the end of the week, Brent crude oil prices had fallen to $61.00. The energy resource is under pressure amid fears of significant oversupply in the global market.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Retail sales USD/JPY | DATE 16.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales are an important indicator of the US economy's health and continue to show steady growth. However, global analysts expect that they'll slow as inflation rises. This is a troubling sign for the US economy since retail sales account for about a third of all consumer spending. Lower key macroeconomic indicators are bad news for the US dollar, and in this environment, USD/JPY may continue to drop towards 154.00. | |||||
| The UK. Bank of England rates decision GBP/USD | DATE 18.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's economic growth rates are extremely weak. Pressure remains from high energy prices, changes in supply chains and harsh US sanctions. The latest data indicate slowing GDP growth rates and a further decline in inflation. Global analysts believe that this combination of factors allows the Bank of England to lower its key interest rate. The bank's current monetary policy easing is unfavourable for the British pound. In these conditions, GBP/USD may decline to 1.3250. | |||||
| ECB interest rate decision EUR/USD | DATE 18.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB Governing Council, noted that the acceleration of the European economy's economic growth, driven by rising consumer activity, business investment, and government spending on defence and infrastructure, will force the regulator to tighten monetary policy. No rate changes are expected at the current meeting, but tougher rhetoric from ECB officials and expectations of further rate cuts from the Fed are favourable for the euro. In this scenario, the EUR/USD rate could rise to 1.1860. | |||||
