08.09.25 - 12.09.25
Results of the previous week
| PA +7.08% | COFFEE +2.92% | ES +1.35% |
BA -6.35% | VIX -4.58% | NG -4.49% |
Last week, US indices showed moderate growth. Despite this restrained movement, they managed to set new all-time highs. The indices are being buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve will make a rate cut at its meeting on 17 September. The likelihood of a rate cut rose after US labour market data showed that the employment situation is worsening.
The forex market saw mixed movement. At the beginning of the week, gold reached a new all-time high. However, after that, it developed a downward correction. The US dollar weakened against the pound amid expectations of a Fed rate cut. Markets preferred to react to the weak labour market rather than to rising inflation.
Brent crude oil prices remain between $65.00 and $69.30. The escalation of military conflict in the Middle East is supporting the energy resource's prices. At the same time, rising US inflation is increasing concerns about demand for oil from one of the world's largest economies, which is holding back oil's price growth.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Retail sales EUR/USD | DATE 16.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales are an important indicator of the US economy's health. The indicator is seeing fairly stable growth. However, global analysts expect that the growth rate will slow as inflation rises. This is a troubling sign for the US economy since retail sales account for about a third of all consumer spending. Lower key macroeconomic indicators are bad news for the US dollar, but the dollar's weakness is favourable for the euro. In this context, EUR/USD could continue to rise to 1.1800. | |||||
| US Federal Reserve rates decision XAU/USD | DATE 17.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The latest US labour market numbers were extremely weak. This has convinced markets that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates at its September meeting. Major assets have already priced in the regulator's decision, but not everything is straightforward. The weakening labour market is accompanied by rising inflation. That's why global analysts think the market's primary focus will be on comments from Fed representatives about their future actions. Hints of further monetary easing are unfavourable for the dollar but welcome news for gold, which is dollar-denominated. In this situation, XAU/USD could continue to rise towards 3,675.00. | |||||
| Bank of England interest rate decision GBP/USD | DATE 18.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
UK price pressure has risen for three months now. Inflation reached 3.8% year over year, which is nearly twice the target level set by the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the GDP growth rate has been declining since March 2025. This leaves the British regulator with a difficult choice to make. It has to stimulate the economy and prevent a sharp rise in inflation. Global analysts expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged, which is good news for the pound. In this context, GBP/USD could resume upward movement to 1.3700. | |||||
